No Water, No Biryani: Pakistan’s Rice Dreams Dry Up!

Oh Pakistani, biryani lover, please read this article fully and start stocking basmati rice.

Biryani is more than a dish in Pakistan — it’s a way of life. For Pakistan, Basmati rice comes mainly from Punjab and the Sindhi province. After your trained terrorist killed innocent Hindus in Pahalgam on 22nd April 2025, trouble is brewing up in the rice paddies of Pakistan’s Punjab and Sindh after India (further referred to by its original name, Bharat) decided to place the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance on 24th April 2025.

The rivers that feed your precious rice fields might just run dry. Get ready to loosen your wallets, because your beloved biryani is about to get costlier!

The Rice That Makes the Biryani

The Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) allocated to Pakistan under the IWT flow through the following regions:

• Punjab Province:

  • The Chenab and Jhelum rivers are critical for Punjab, Pakistan’s most agriculturally productive province. The Indus also flows through parts of Punjab, merging with its tributaries.

  • Punjab hosts the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system, the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS), which irrigates about 80% of Pakistan’s cultivated land (approximately 16 million hectares).

  • Key districts: Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, Bahawalpur, and Rahim Yar Khan.

  • Punjab produces 85% of Pakistan’s food grains, relying heavily on canal irrigation from the Western Rivers.

    
    

• Sindh Province:

  • The Indus River is the primary water source for Sindh, supporting agriculture and urban centers like Karachi and Hyderabad.

  • The Sukkur and Kotri barrages divert Indus water for irrigation, supporting crops in the Indus Delta and surrounding areas.

  • Sindh faces water scarcity issues, and any disruption in Indus flows exacerbates challenges in this region.

For an in-depth analysis of the eastern and western rivers, along with the crops, harvesting timelines, and economic implications, refer to my other article linked here. Here I will stick to rice and biryani.

Rice (Basmati and Other Varieties):

• Regions: Punjab (Gujranwala, Sheikhupura, Sialkot) and Sindh (Larkana, Jacobabad).

• Importance: Basmati rice is a major export crop, grown on 3–3.5 million hectares.

• Dependence on Indus: Water-intensive crop, entirely dependent on canal irrigation.

Rice (Basmati and Non-Basmati)

• Total Production: 8–9 million tons (2022–2023).

  • Punjab: ~5 million tons (60%, mostly Basmati).

  • Sindh: ~3 million tons (35%, mixed varieties).

• Exports: 4–5 million tons (2023: ~4.8 million tons, earning $2.5 billion).

  • Basmati rice is a premium export, targeting markets in the Middle East, Europe, and the US.

• Domestic Consumption: 3–4 million tons.

  • Rice is a secondary staple, consumed in urban areas and as a cultural dish (biryani, pulao).

• Economic Value: ~$4–5 billion (export-driven, with Basmati fetching higher prices).

  • Rice exports are a major foreign exchange earner.

Sowing time - April to July (Khaiff season)
Harvesting time - October to November

Rice crops need a lot of water. These rivers, allocated to Pakistan under the 1960 IWT, irrigate 80% Pakistan’s farmland, making every spoonful of biryani a gift from the Indus Basin.

But now Bharat got its finger on the tap. Abeyance of the IWT by Bharat can stop sharing water flow, divert rivers, or even build dams to choke the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus.

No water, no rice. No rice, no biryani. And trust us, Pakistan, you’re not ready for the price tag that comes with that!

Biryani’s Future

It’s sowing time. Farmers in Punjab were expecting normal flow of water from Chenab & Jhelum. Same way, farmers in Sindh province were expecting water from the Indus river.

Without sufficient water, rice planting could drop by 5–10% in 2025, slashing production by 0.4–0.9 million tons. That’s enough to make every biryani plate in Lahore and Karachi feel the pinch. And once Bharat builds a few more reservoirs - say, in 5-10 years - rice yields could crash by 20–30%, wiping out 1.6-2.7 million tons. That’s not just a biryani crisis; it’s a national tragedy!

Now, let’s talk about money

Pakistan exports 4–5 million tons of rice, earning $2.5 billion, but keeps 3-4 million tons for domestic feasts like biryani. A 10% production drop means 0.4 million tons less for your plates, forcing imports at global prices (~$900–980/ton FOB). That’s $360-392 million just to keep the biryani flowing. Food inflation, already at a spicy 47–50% in 2023, could soar to 60–70%, making every biryani plate cost as much as a fancy dinner in a 5 star hotel in Dubai. And don’t even think about switching to naan - wheat’s in trouble too, with the same rivers at risk! I will explain about wheat in another article.

The Karachi Stock Market’s Biryani Blues

The news of the IWT suspension already sent the Karachi 100 index into a tailspin, crashing 1,500 points on April 24, 2025. Investors are running faster than a biryani lover chasing the last piece of mutton. With agricultural losses projected at $1–3 billion in 2025 and up to $15–20 billion long-term, Pakistan’s economy is shaking more than a poorly cooked biryani. The rupee, already down 50% from 2021–2023, could take another 20–30% hit, making imported rice - and everything else - feel like a luxury. So, Pakistan, better start saving those rupees if you want to keep the biryani on the table!

No Water, No Biryani, No Party

Let’s be real, biryani isn’t just food, it’s the soul of every Pakistani gathering. Weddings, Eid feasts, Friday lunches — no celebration without a steaming plate of spiced rice and tender meat.

But after the abeyance of the Indus Water Treaty by Bharat on 24th April, those joyous moments might come with a hefty bill. Farmers in Punjab and Sindh without water can’t sow rice in April–June 2025, and by harvest time (October–November), you’ll be lucky to get probably half of the usual quantity. The streets of Lahore and Karachi are going to miss biryani.

And don’t think you can just switch to pulao — same rice, same problem! Pakistan’s 240 million biryani enthusiasts could face a 10–20 million ton food deficit if water flows drop significantly.

Remember the 2022 sugar and wheat shortages? Multiply that chaos by ten.

Pakistan’s Options: Beg, Borrow, or Boil Over

So, what’s Pakistan going to do? You could beg the World Bank to mediate, but Bharat’s playing hardball, and the world’s not exactly rushing to your side after the Pahalgam terrorist attack. You could borrow more from China or the IMF. Good luck with that $80 billion debt pile! Or maybe you’ll just boil over with protests, as 20–30 million more slip into poverty, dreaming of affordable biryani.

Building new dams or fixing your leaky canals (40% water loss!) might help, but that’s a decade away, and you don’t have billions in your forex reserves.

Meanwhile, Bharat, with its $4 trillion economy, barely notices the fuss.

A Spicy Farewell

So, dear Pakistan, enjoy your biryani while it lasts. You’ll be paying a king’s ransom for every grain of Basmati. Your favorite dish is about to become a luxury, and those street-side biryani stalls might start charging like five-star restaurants. Better stock up on rice now, because Bharat has already started turning off the tap.

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