Rice Crisis Incoming? Major Supply Disruption Could Hit Basmati Markets

This article is specifically for Basmati rice importers and exporters.

After the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22nd, carried out by Islamist terrorists from Pakistan, India (hereafter referred to by its original name Bharat) has taken diplomatic action by placing the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance. This means Bharat will now start controlling or stopping the flow of these rivers.

Now, if you're a citizen or importer from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, USA, Iraq, or the UAE, this may not seem like breaking news — because unfortunately, such attacks from Pakistan on Bharat have been a recurring pattern. But the moment Bharat placed the IWT in abeyance, it started to affect you too — especially if you're in the Basmati rice trade.

How will this impact you? That’s what I’ll try to explain in this 5-minute read.

Bharat is one of the world’s largest exporters of Basmati rice. Pakistan is the second-largest. In Pakistan, Basmati rice is heavily cultivated in the Punjab and Sindh provinces, both of which are irrigated by Western Rivers like the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. These rivers irrigate nearly 80% of Pakistan’s cultivated land. Punjab alone produces 85% of Pakistan’s food grains, relying primarily on canal systems fed by these rivers.

Now, after the Abeyance of Indus Waters Treaty, Bharat is working aggressively on this front with short-term, medium-term, and long-term plans already in motion.

• Bharat can immediately hold or divert 5%–10% of water,

• 20%–30% within 6 months,

• and 100% within a few years.

Pakistan is already suffering from a 32% water deficit — for both irrigation and drinking. So even a 5%–10% immediate reduction is a big blow, especially for Basmati rice farmers.

By the time the harvest season approaches, Bharat could easily control 20–30% of the water flow. This would lead to severe water shortages during critical crop stages, potentially damaging the Basmati crop before harvesting.

In short, the upcoming Basmati rice season in Pakistan looks grim.

Key Crop Timeline:

• Sowing time: April to July (Kharif season)

• Harvesting time: October to November

• Water-intensive crop: Rice, especially Basmati, requires a lot of water
  

Pakistan Rice Production Snapshot (2022–2023):

• Total Production: 8–9 million tons
  

  • Punjab: ~5 million tons (60%, mostly Basmati)

  • Sindh: ~3 million tons (35%, mixed varieties)
    

• Exports: ~4.8 million tons (2023), earning ~$2.5 billion
  

• Domestic Consumption: 3–4 million tons
  

• Economic Value: ~$4–5 billion (export-driven, with Basmati earning premium prices)
  

• Basmati is a cultural and urban staple — used in biryani, pulao, etc.
  

• Major markets: Middle East, Europe, and the US

Meanwhile, Bharat is working at war-footing speed, building canals and dams to strengthen water control systems.

Since Pakistan’s Basmati production relies almost entirely on Indus River irrigation, even a 15–25% drop in water availability could reduce yields by 20–30%, resulting in an annual loss of 0.4 to 0.9 million metric tons. This could lead to a 30–50% drop in export volumes, costing Pakistan $0.3 to $0.75 billion in revenue.

Countries that previously relied on Pakistan for Basmati rice will now look to Bharat to fulfill their needs. Naturally, increased demand will drive prices up. Bharat is itself a major consumer of Basmati, and domestic demand always remains high.

So what should you do as a Basmati rice importer?

• Start planning your purchases now.

• Start stocking up.

• Consider placing pre-orders — this will help secure a lower price.

• Buy Basmati rice from Madhya Pradesh — it offers competitive pricing with quality on par with Northern Bharat.
  

And if you're a Basmati rice exporter from Bharat:

• Start stocking up on paddy now.

• When prices rise, you can process and export as per incoming orders.

For example, in Sehore district (Madhya Pradesh), a key Basmati region:

• Basmati rice is grown on 16,532 hectares, yielding 57,862 tons annually

• Total paddy area: 31,866 hectares, producing 134,532 tons

• That means Basmati accounts for about 43% of total paddy output by weight

If you don’t yet know how to start exporting, you can contact me directly.

I’ll be published a free Basmati Rice Market Guide 2025 with complete information on Basmati rice trade — available for free download. This report will help you make informed export decisions. You can click on this link to get your free copy.

Follow me in Linkedin or my Blog for more updates

That’s all for now. See you in the next article.

Ram Ram!



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